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Economics review of the year 2011

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The eurozone's future hung in the balance, the US saw its credit rating downgraded, Japan's earthquake rocked markets and fiscal failings forced out two prime ministers

January

The year begins with a prediction. "We have to save the euro over the next six months," says Hungary's prime minister, Viktor Orbán, as the country starts its six-month turn heading the European Union.

In the UK, the economic data shows inflation shooting up to 3.7% in December, prompting growing speculation that the Bank of England will raise interest rates by the spring.

It is revealed that the UK economy shrank by a shock 0.5% in the last quarter of 2010 as Britain's recovery faltered in the pre-Christmas snow.

At the annual get-together for world leaders in Davos, George Soros – the speculator who famously "broke the Bank of England" – warns that the UK faces recession unless its austerity package is relaxed. Cynics muse that Soros might be talking up his own strategy, rather than expressing concern.

February

News that inflation rose to 4% in January, the highest annual rate in more than two years, prompts a predictable response. Deputy governor of the Bank of England, Charles Bean, warns that interest rates may have to rise, and is joined by Andrew Sentance - a soon-to-depart member of the Bank's monetary policy committee (MPC). City wags, concerned that his medicine might finish off the UK, dub him "Death" Sentance.

No such concerns in China, which becomes the world's second-largest economy after taking the title Japan had held for more than 40 years.

March

The last thing the world's economy needed in March was a shock, but that's what it got. An earthquake and tsunami in Japan rock financial markets.

Meanwhile, having spent the runup to the financial crisis insisting there was nothing risky about stuffing sub-prime mortgages into collateralised debt obligations, the credit ratings agencies awake. Moody's slashes Greece's rating by three notches to B1, while also downgrading Spain's to Aa2. Borrowing costs for weaker members of the eurozone continue to rise, raising fears that further rescue packages will be needed.

The agency also has words for George Osborne following the chancellor's "budget for growth". It says Britain could lose its prized AAA credit rating if growth forecasts prove too optimistic.

April

The ratings agencies are developing a taste for this downgrading lark. Standard & Poor's snips US debt outlook from stable to negative for the first time since the Pearl Harbor attack in 1941.

Meanwhile, China raises its interest rates for the second time in 2011, adding to concerns that its economy is overheating.

A shutdown of the US federal government is averted with a late deal on spending cuts, but the gold price hits a new record of $1,500 an ounce as investors seek safe havens.

May

With the world looking for firm financial leadership, Dominique Strauss-Kahn is arrested in New York on sexual assault allegations, forcing his resignation as the head of the International Monetary Fund (the charges are subsequently dropped).

Portugal negotiates a €78bn (£70bn) bailout deal, while the economic thinktank, the Paris-based OECD, says the UK will have to start raising interest rates to prevent inflation.

June

The Orbán timescale still looks valid. Five months after Hungary's prime minister warned Europe had six months to save the euro, a Berlin meeting between Germany's chancellor, Angela Merkel, and the French president, Nicolas Sarkozy, prompts headlines: "45 minutes to save the euro".

Meanwhile, the rudderless IMF supports the UK's austerity measures, but stock markets fall sharply on the imminent prospect of a Greek default.

Greek bonds hit record levels after riots add to the pressure on the government.

July

What a relief. "At the 11th hour, a new solution to save the euro has emerged," reports the Wall Street Journal, after European leaders hammer out a new deal including a "Marshall plan" to stimulate the Greek economy.

In the UK, a second royal wedding, an earthquake, hot weather, heavy snowfall and the Olympics are all lined up to excuse poor second-quarter GDP figures.

French finance minister Christine Lagarde is appointed the new head of the IMF. With the post again going to a European, emerging nations argue it should be filled on the basis of competence, not nationality. Whatever next?

August

Congress passes a new US debt ceiling deal, but it's still not a great month for Barack Obama. The president is rocked as ratings agency Standard & Poor's carries out its threat to downgrade the US's gold-plated triple A rating to AA+, as it judges that a deficit reduction plan is too tame.

Switzerland moves to counteract the "massive overvaluation" of the Swiss franc.

In the UK, the MPC members suddenly agree. Dissenters Martin Weale and Spencer Dale fall back into line in a unanimous vote for interest rates to remain at their record low of 0.5%.

September

Having solved the problem in July, the world's leaders start doubting whether they really have saved the euro. Leading central banks are to flood the financial system with US dollars, in a co-ordinated action designed to boost market confidence.

In the UK, public sector job cuts send unemployment back through the 2.5m barrier, and having backed the coalition government's austerity drive in June, the IMF hedges its bets. It cuts UK economic growth forecasts and warns that David Cameron may have to slow his deficit reduction programme.

October

Merkel and Sarkozy hold emergency talks in Frankfurt to cement a deal to save the eurozone (again). Sarkozy flies to Germany rather than stay with his wife, Carla, for the birth of their first child – underlining either the scale of the panic or his fear of maternity wards.

Inevitably, Europe's leaders claim another victory after increasing the firepower of the main bailout fund - the European financial stability facility (EFSF) – to around €1tn.

The Bank of England takes action to kick-start Britain's flatlining economy by pumping £75bn more into the banking system – more, and earlier, than economists had expected.

November

The much-heralded October eurozone victory suffers a setback. The Merkozy eyebrow arches as Greek prime minister George Papandreou proposes a referendum on the deal. The plebiscite is subsequently crushed, as is Papandreou, who quits.

He's not alone. Italy's prime minister, Silvio Berlusconi, also says he's off as interest rates on Italian bonds rise above 7%.

In the UK there is some good news, as figures show GDP was stronger than expected in the third quarter, growing by 0.5%, while inflation is also starting to fall. But there's bad news too: in his autumn statement, Osborne concedes the UK will barely grow next year.


December

UK unemployment hits a fresh 17-year high of 2.64m.

The tension between the US and China over international trade escalates when Beijing imposes additional duties on cars imported from the United States. EU leaders agree a "fiscal compact" after David Cameron vetoed a revision of the Lisbon treaty.

And the year ends with a happy new year message from the IMF: the world, warns Lagarde, is at serious risk of sliding into a 1930s-style slump.


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