The chancellor's familiar pitch rings hollow, given there has been no growth in the UK economy since the third quarter of 2010
It was a perfect spring morning in Washington as George Osborne sat down on the terrace of the British embassy on Massachusetts Avenue to talk to the press. The sun was shining, and if the chancellor was to be believed, the outlook for the UK economy was like the sky: cloudless. The chancellor's pitch was familiar. Britain had managed to get ahead of the curve by taking early, aggressive action to reduce budget deficits, and was being rewarded for doing so. Backsliding would be a disaster and leave the country at the mercy of the speculators.
Despite the pain, the public was still fully behind the austerity programme and saw no alternative to it. The budget might not have had the best of headlines but it would help to make Britain a more productive and competitive country. In Washington, Britain was seen as a country getting it right.
Part of what Osborne says is true. There would be a cost if the government did a screeching U-turn and announced it was going for growth. That cost might indeed be greater than any short-term benefits from higher public spending or tax cuts. It is also the case that the public, so far at least, is yet to be convinced there is an alternative to what the government is doing.
The idea, though, that the economy is in a state of bliss thanks to Osborne's stewardship is baloney. There has been no growth since the third quarter of 2010 and the deficit-reduction plan is off track as a result. What's more, the reason Britain would pay a high price for a U-turn is that Osborne and his colleagues have made such a fetish of fiscal discipline. The IMF this week has been stressing the need for countries not to overdo the austerity; the coalition has gone for it hell for leather.
The March rise in retail sales was a freak caused by hot weather and petrol hoarding. Falling real incomes mean household budgets are squeezed, which is perhaps why the budget was the worst received in living memory.
If the eurozone crisis settles down, if inflation falls sharply, if quantitative easing boosts spending, then Osborne may yet come up smelling of roses. But he would be advised to go easy on the bragging. Nigel Lawson and Gordon Brown were just two of his predecessors who thought they had cracked it when they hadn't.