Rolling coverage of all the day’s political developments as they happen, including George Osborne and Ed Balls’ post-budget interviews, and the IFS post-budget briefing
IFS identifies big variation on public spending cuts plans. Estimates Labour could meet its targets without ANY further cuts after 2015/16
Labour could make little if any spending cuts if they chose says IFS - cue pressure on Balls from within Labour movement to make it so
IFS says 'rollercoaster' pattern of spending identified is unlikely: cuts even in majority Tory govt will not be more dramatic than this gov
The Institute for Fiscal Studies’ post-budget briefing has just started.
Here are the key points we’ve had so far.
"It is in changing the structure of taxation of savings & pensions ... for which [Osborne] will be remembered" Johnson of the IFS
IFS’ Paul Johnson: however u calculate it “we are for sure much worse off on average than we’d have any reasonable hope of being in 2007”
IFS puts paid to the squeezed middle argument: people on middle and upper-middle incomes have been insulated from tax and benefit changes.
Looking at changes implemented by the coalition, the poorest have seen biggest proportionate losses.
IFS: Poorest hit hardest by tax and spend changes by the coalition
The era of ‘Cathy Come Home’ is not my vision for the future of Britain ...
So the fiscal plans I am publishing today are based on a further £6bn pounds from tax dodgers, and an additional £6bn of tax rises. Those in high-value properties, the banking sector, and others should pay more, rather than asking those working on low incomes to accept less.
I thought statements in the House of Commons were supposed to be from ministers speaking collectively on behalf of the Government. [Alexander] has totally abused that privilege, assembling MPs this morning on a false pretence - I know it’s usual to have several days of budget response, but not several budgets.
He’s been saying that for the last two years and has given us almost no details about what that actually looks like. I think it’s rather disappointing that so far in, we still haven’t heard any details about this.
Tim Montgomerie in the Times (paywall) is very good today. He describes vividly how Lynton Crosby operates.
At a recent Downing Street meeting there was a lively discussion about fine-tuning the Tories’ message on the economy. One participant urged more help for the low-paid. Another worried that further action was needed to quell anger about the banks. One wanted a big emphasis on housebuilding. One suggested that the idea of devolving power to local authorities in the north should be put centre stage in the budget to prove the Conservative commitment to rebalance the economy.
Everyone around the table wanted a slightly different tweaking of the Conservative pitch. Lynton Crosby, the party’s election strategist, then lifted his head: “All very fascinating . . .” (my source says he uttered these words in a tone that suggested he might not have been entirely captivated) “ . . . but voters only need to know two things about the economy: it was broken five years ago by the other lot and it’s OK again now under us.”
My colleague Michael White has done a write-up of how the budget has been received in the papers. His conclusion?
Rarely can I remember such a disparate range of verdicts as to what Osborne’s sixth budget meant, let alone his achievement – or lack of it – since the first of the six was unveiled shortly after the unexpected formation of the Tory/Lib Dem coalition following the indecisive election in May 2010.
Danny Alexander has just staged a photocall with his yellow box.
Treasury sources refuse to open the alternative budget box, so we are not sure what's in it. pic.twitter.com/XDyYB0acW1
Unconvinced parliamentary sketch writers admire Danny's yellow box pic.twitter.com/5tKHSMrvIw
Here is today’s Guardian seat projection.
Judging by Twitter, this unprecedented Lib Dem financial statement does not seem to be working out too well.
From the Spectator’s Isabel Hardman
Lib Dems were v.upbeat about the Danny statement yesterday, saying it was ‘unprecedented’. I suspect it will also be ‘unrepeated'
Safe to say,I'm not sure this is how Danny Alexander hoped the Lib Dem alternative Budget would go.Clegg seems to have left half way through
@Pwebstertimes IMHO he looks pained and embarrassed. Which would be appropriate in the circs! Where they hell are the rest of them???
Last night senior Lib Dem declared themselves happy with whole Budget. Today they r disowning. If I'm confused, what chance have the public?
Labour brands the Lib Dems' 'Yellow Budget' a 'farce'. Hard to argue, given they signed up to the real Budget only yesterday
Commons benches strikingly empty behind Danny Alexander and Vince Cable. Could they find *nobody* willing to sit there? #Budget2015
Here is the “alternative fiscal path” document produced by the Treasury (pdf).
And here is the Treasury paper explaining the new measures on tax evasion (pdf).
Labour’s Chris Bryant says George Osborne announced an orchestra tax relief yesterday. But something only counts as an orchestra if it includes wind instruments, strings, percussion and brass. That excludes many orchestras.
Alexander says that is a serious point. He will take it up with HMRC.
Adam Afriyie, a Conservative, says the Lib Dems have betrayed their voters. This display is the Westminster bubble at its worst. He says voters will make up their own minds.
Alexander says Afriyie should welcome what the government has achieved.
Alexander is replying to Leslie.
He says no resources were spent on this, beyond the time of civil servants.
Chris Leslie, the shadow chief secretary to the Treasury, is responding.
He says this is a farce. It is a party political statement, not government business.
Doesn’t he realised how two-faced they look? They want to be in government, and out of government.
Alexander is now listing the three new measures being introduced to toughen the law on tax evasion. (See 8.47am.)
Fines will be in proportion to the amount of tax being evaded, he says.
The heckling is coming from the Labour benches.
V heated scenes in the Commons as Danny Alexander tries to give his 'Lib Dem budget'. Labour benches shouting. Danny ploughing on
"They don't like to hear it" on Labour benches @DannyAlexander says but given the level of shouting in #HoC I doubt anyone can hear it
A joke, an abuse, outrageous...just some of the heckles being hurled at Danny Alexander giving his Lib Dem alternative budget #Budget2015
Danny A desperately trying to get heard above Lab barracking in the Commons. Not getting much help from Bercow. #budget2015
Vince deems to be enjoy ing Danny's diccomfort. #Budget2015
Watching Danny Alexander & 16 LDs attempting to deliver the You Won't Believe It's Not Budget speech. Labour MPs trying to out-chunter him.
Gwynne plonks the Red book infront of Danny Alexander "That's your Budget, there" Speaker tells him off. DA ploughing on but it's hard work
Danny Alexander, the shadow chief secretary to the Treasury, is speaking now.
He says there is an alternative to the spending plans set out by the Conservatives.
John Bercow, the Commons Speaker, says ministerial statements are supposed to be ministerial. They are not meant to be used for party purposes.
He hopes Danny Alexander will bear this in mind, he says.
Excitement builds in the Commons Chamber ahead of Danny Alexander’s alternative Budget pic.twitter.com/hgnL5YyFJE
In his speech at the Lib Dem spring conference at the weekend Danny Alexander looked ahead to the day when he would be delivering “a Liberal Democrat budget”. He even produced a yellow budget box to illustrate his point.
It seemed like a moment of delusional wishful thinking. But, in an unprecedented move, Alexander will be making a Lib Dem finance statement in the Commons in just a few minutes. It is not a full budget, but he will set out Lib Dem spending plans, which are different from Conservative ones, and they will be explained in an official Treasury document. Statements of this kind are normally for government business, not party business, but the Lib Dems insisted on being allowed to deliver this one. Alexander argued that it would be unfair for George Osborne to be allowed to present a Conservative budget in the Commons so close to the election if he did not get the chance to put his alternative too.
Here are the key points from Nick Clegg’s Call Clegg phone-in.
I actually share President Obama’s views much more than David Cameron’s. I think it is extremely worrying. It cannot be more alarming to have seen Binyamin Netanyahu, in the latter stages of the election campaign in Israel, do something that no leading Israeli politician has ever done, which is to rule out the prospect of a two-state solution. The whole push for peace, for decades now, has been premised on the point that at some point the Israeli nation and a Palestinian state can be created to live in peaceful co-existence with each other. It is an astonishing thing that he should have departed from that long, long tradition. I think it is quite right that the White House has expressed serious misgivings about that.
And I have to say to you, if Binyamin Netanyahu now unilaterally has decided to rule out the prospect of a Palestinian state, then I think it is inevitable that the British parliament, as it voted to a few months ago, should rule a Palestinian state in. In other words, that we should in response - and it would be in response to extreme provocation from Netanyahu - act to recognise a Palestinian state. It cannot be right, given that this is the crucible of so much violence and division across so many communities, that one man, in what I assume was a desperate attempt to curry some votes, should basically tear up the basic tramlines on which a peace deal is likely to occur ...
The Conservatives are departing quite radically [from the coalition’s approach to spending], lurching away from the approach which we’ve taken over the last half a decade. Over the last five years, we have basically taken a mixture of tax increases and spending reductions, welfare reductions, action on tax avoidance, to start balancing the books. That’s allowed us to halve the deficit as a proportion of our nation’s wealth.
The Conservatives announced last autumn that they are going to lurch away from that and only nobble the working-age poor and only the working-age poor will make additional sacrifices to balance the books. I don’t think that’s fair, I don’t think it’s right to ask for £1,500 off the 8m poorest families in this country, which is what the Conservatives want to do.
Q: At your party conference there was a stall with people betting on how many seats you would get. Someone sarcastically said 150, as Clegg promised in 2008. And the party tried to cover it up.
Clegg says he does not know anything about that.
Q: What is happening with the TV debates?
Clegg says he thinks David Cameron and Ed Cameron get one-to-one interviews with Jeremy Paxman, followed by a seven-party debate ..
Q: Is it true that you are spending £500,000 on teaching people to speak Cornish?
Clegg says he does not remember the details, but he says it is important to keep the Cornish language alive.
Clegg says he has given up normal smoking. He is now vaping, he says.
Q: Do you welcome Binyamin Netanyahu’s election is Israel? David Cameron said he did at an event last night?
Clegg says he does not welcome that. Like President Obama, he says he finds it “extremely worrying”. Netanyahu ruled out a two-state solution in a desperate bid to shore up votes.
Q: Why do you accept claims that unemployment has fallen when most of these jobs are on zero hours contracts?
Clegg says that is not true. There around 600,000 zero hours contracts. And there are around 30m people working in Britain.
We know what George Osborne makes of the Sun’s front page in London. (See 8.47am.) But I wonder what he makes of this.
If you thought the Sun's "epic strut" frontpage was bad... here's the Scottish version pic.twitter.com/DwUhFL7Yrl
Clegg says, in all Ed Balls’s “interminable” interviews this morning, he has not explained how he would balance the books.
He says the Lib Dems want to stick to the measured, balanced plan that the coalition has adopted.
Q: There was nothing in the budget for me?
What about the personal allowance, Clegg asks.
Clegg says the OBR is making a statistical assumption about the future that is not going to happen.
They ignore potential future measures on issues like tax avoidance.
Nick Clegg is hosting his Call Clegg phone-in now.
Q: Are you publishing a Lib Dem budget today?
Ed Balls, the shadow chancellor, has also been giving interviews this morning. Here are the key points he’s been making.
I don’t think those cuts are going to be possible for George Osborne. He’s going to end up either cutting our National Health Service or raising VAT.
You only solve that by building more affordable housing and getting the house prices more affordable. [Osborne] did nothing on that.
We say why don’t you put the top rate of income tax back up to 50p for people earning over £150,000? That will be a fairer way to do it.
Sensible spending cuts, some tax rises at the top, more action on wages and tackling the abuse of zero-hours contracts. A more balanced plan which will get the deficit down but not do so at the expense of our National Health Service.
Here are the key points from George Osborne’s interviews.
We’ll be announcing, first of all, a new strict liability criminal offence. What that basically means is you won’t have any excuses any more if you’ve got an offshore bank account. If you’re evading tax, you’re breaking the law, and this will be a new power for the courts and for the prosecutors to go after you.
Second, we’re going to look at a new criminal offence that you can’t help someone evade tax. This is for the accountants and the other companies that might help someone evade tax – that’s a brand new criminal offence.
I almost spilt my coffee this morning when I read the front page of The Sun. What’s great is that they have always got a way of bringing life to the budget and it’s the geniuses of The Sun who can come up with that front page.
Thursday's The Sun front page: George's epic strut #tomorrowspaperstoday#bbcpapers#Budget2015pic.twitter.com/6I9LkjNmjn
Osborne admits productivity is weak. It has been for many decades.
He is not someone who says there is no role for government; far from it. Government can help build a northern powerhouse. But it needs to sort out the debt.
Q: In 2003 you talked about financial products helping people avoid tax.
Osborne says he was pointing out that, under Labour, there were loopholes. In government he has addressed this. Rich business people used to boast about paying less tax than their cleaners; he stopped that. People used to evade stamp duty; he has stopped that.
Q: Would your new tax avoidance laws lead to Lord Green being prosecuted?
Osborne says he cannot comment on individual cases. But today he is proposing new criminal powers to tackle tax evasion.
Q: The prime minister says defence spending should rise. How can you square that with the cuts you are planning?
Osborne says he is not proposing deeper cuts. He is proposing cuts at the same pace as over the last five years.
Q: But people have a right to know where the £12bn will come from?
Osborne says the government has saved £21bn from welfare in this parliament. People can judge him on his record.
James Naughtie is interviewing George Osborne. Osborne is in Tilbury, Essex.
Q: Your plans involved what the OBR calls a “rollercoaster” of public spending. Will you tell us where the axe will fall?
Here are today’s YouGov polling figures.
Update: Lab lead at 1 - Latest YouGov / The Sun results 18th Mar - Con 33%, Lab 34%, LD 8%, UKIP 14%, GRN 6%; APP -15 http://t.co/wcSPwG5PNt
Yesterday we had the budget. But often it takes 24 hours for the best analysis to emerge, and that will be the focus of the day.
George Osborne, the chancellor, Ed Balls, his Labour shadow, and Danny Alexander, the Lib Dem chief secretary to the Treasury, have all been giving interviews already. I will round them up shortly.
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