This year, next time, sometime, never. The Bank of England has been conducting its own version of the old party game as it leaves us guessing about the timing of the first increase in interest rates. Mark Carney, who prides himself on being a great communicator, seems to have a different message depending on which day of the week it is.
Some sympathy for the Bank is warranted. It was always going to get tougher to set borrowing costs once the economy started to recover, and growth has been strong now for more than a year. When the official figures for the second quarter of 2014 are released next month they will show that national output is back above its pre-recession levels in early 2008, albeit still well below its former peak in per capita terms.
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