In the month since the European parliament elections, a growing number of voices on the left of British politics have warned that Labour is failing to grasp the significance of Ukip. After warnings from a shadow minister and the leader of Unison, the Fabian Society identified six Labour-held seats that Ukip now the most working-class party in Britain effectively "won" at the elections last month. In Rotherham, Rother Valley, Dudley North, Plymouth Moor View and Penistone and Stocksbridge, the speed of Ukip's advance, coupled with evidence of a broader decline in blue-collar support for Labour, led the Fabians to talk of a "considerable vulnerability to Ukip".
The 2014 election results were certainly a wake-up call for those who refused to believe that Ukip could inflict mass damage in Labour territory. The party that some progressives cheered on as a tool for "dividing the right" took over 41% in Rotherham and North East Lincolnshire, over 35% in Doncaster, Hartlepool, Middlesbrough, Scarborough, Redcar and Cleveland and Kingston-upon-Hull, and over 25% in places like Carlisle, Calderdale and Stockport. Such results have even led some inside Ukip to talk of a "2020 strategy" for establishing their party as the only long-term credible alternative in Labour heartlands. "This seat is not for 2015," explained one senior activist to us while flicking through a list of Ukip's targets. "It's for 2020 when the incumbent Labour government is on its knees."
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