Latest Guardian/ICM poll puts Conservatives on 40%, Labour on 35% and the Lib Dems on 16%
The Conservatives have forged a five-point lead over Labour, according to the latest Guardian/ICM poll, suggesting that David Cameron would stand on the verge of an outright majority if an election were held today.
The Tories are on 40%, up three percentage points from December, while Labour has drifted down one to 35%. The Liberal Democrats are on 16%, up one.
The Tories' standing is their highest since before the general election in the Guardian/ICM series – they last stood at 40% in March 2010.
Their lead is the biggest since the eight-point edge they enjoyed in June 2010, a few weeks after Cameron moved into Downing Street.
The result will pile on the pressure for the Labour leader, Ed Miliband, who has endured a difficult few weeks dominated by Westminster whispering about his performance and rows with union leaders over his attempt to harden his party's line on the deficit.
Miliband and the shadow chancellor, Ed Balls, backed the public sector pay freeze, and signalled that they could not currently promise to reverse any of the coalition's expenditure cuts – moves which prompted a furious response from the general secretary of Unite, Len McCluskey.
But there is scant evidence that the change of position on public expenditure has done Balls and Miliband any good with the wider electorate.
Asked how Labour's new harder line on the cuts affected the likelihood to support the party, the overwhelming majority, 72%, said it made no difference one way or the other, as against just 10% who said it made them more likely they would vote for it. That is fewer than the 13% saying they would now be less likely to vote Labour as a result of the change of economic emphasis, giving the shift a net rating of minus-three points.
This month – like last – respondents were asked to put aside party preferences and consider who was best placed to manage the economy properly.
On this score, Miliband and Balls show more progress – creeping up five points from December's low of 23% to 28%. But Cameron and Osborne also inched up two, to 46% – a record high. All told, the Tory advantage on this all-important test of economic trust thus drops to 18 points, as against the 21-point gap recorded last month.
The polling, which was carried out at the end of a week in which Cameron, Miliband and Nick Clegg had all talked about overhauling capitalism, contains a little more cheer for Labour on the question of top pay.
As the business secretary, Vince Cable, set out the coalition's proposals on executive remuneration on Monday, 30% believe Miliband's Labour party would be the most likely to actually do something about outsized pay packets, against just 27% for Cameron's Tories. Just 16% would trust the Liberal Democrats to act effectively in this area.
The new Guardian/ICM poll shows the combined total of the other parties at 9%. Their joint score is down four points over the month, with half of that fall accounted for by the Scottish National party, who sank from 5% to 3%.
The poll comes after a weekend which saw two surveys published by other pollsters, both of which also indicated that the Tories were making headway.
A YouGov poll for the Sunday Times recorded a five-point Conservative lead, whereas ComRes for the Independent on Sunday and Sunday Mirror now have the two main parties level-pegging, after the same company recorded a four-point Labour lead in December.
The detailed ICM data records the Conservatives pulling ahead on all sorts of fronts. Their appeal among men is especially wide, at 43% to Labour's 34%, but Cameron will be relieved that he now also enjoys a 40% to 38% edge among women, easing recent Tory anxieties about a gender gap.
The north-south divide is as pronounced as ever: the Tories lead by 12 points in the south, and Labour is five points up in the north. In the traditional electoral battleground of the Midlands, however, it is the Tories who are surging ahead – at 48%, they are nine points clear of Labour, which stands on 39%.
The class cleavage is also more evident in politics than it has been for a while. The Conservatives are well ahead among the professional ABs, by 45% to Labour's 29%, and also enjoy healthy leads among the clerical C1 grade and the C2 bracket of skilled manual workers. Labour relies increasingly on the lower DE socioeconomic classes, among whom it retains a striking 15-point lead, with 45% against the Conservatives' 30%.
ICM Research interviewed a random sample of 1003 adults aged 18+ by telephone on 20-22 January 2012. Interviews were conducted across the country and the results have been weighted to the profile of all adults. ICM is a member of the British Polling Council and abides by its rules.