Labour and Liberal Democrats hope David Cameron will take lower profile as main parties plan focus on economy
Alistair Darling, Charles Kennedy and the former Tory leader in Scotland, Annabel Goldie, are being lined up as the main faces of a broad-based pro-union campaign in the referendum on Scottish independence, sources in the three parties confirmed Wenesday night.
As Labour and the Liberal Democrats expressed the hope that David Cameron would adopt a lower profile after a faltering start, pro-union campaigners said they would place the future of the economy in an independent Scotland at the forefront of a campaign that would also include business leaders and celebrities.
Darling, who is widely respected in all parties after warning of the depth of the recession on the eve of the financial crash in 2008, will be one of the main voices in the pro-union's economy campaign, which will focus on the burden that Scotland will face in assuming its share of the UK's £1.4tn debt in 2014. Business leaders will also echo the warnings of the former chancellor in a campaign designed to be broad-based.
The prime minister made clear that the campaign would focus on issues of substance as he mocked the SNP. "I think that too many in the SNP have been happy to talk about the process but do not want to talk about the substance," he told MPs. "I sometimes feel when I listen to them that it is not a referendum they want, but a 'neverendum'. Let us have the debate, and let us keep our country together."
Cameron, who was supported by Ed Miliband yesterday, is proposing to devolve to Holyrood powers to hold a referendum – with two strings attached: a vote must be held by a specific date, probably 2013, and only a simple "in or out" option can be posed. This is designed to prevent the SNP leader and Scottish first minister, Alex Salmond, proposing the "devo max" question, in which voters would be asked if they wanted full-scale devolution, a move that would fall short of independence.
Salmond was highly critical of Downing Street. "A consultative referendum is within the provenance of the [Scottish] parliament," he told Channel Four News. "What we object to is this extraordinary attempt by Downing Street for the prime minister and chancellor to start pulling the strings of the Scottish referendum," he told Channel 4 News. "There is more control from London in a sort of Thatcheresque manner.
"We think these days are over. Mr Cameron and Mr Osborne would be well advised to recognise the new reality, where Scotland votes democratically for something to be done. What is done is fashioned and made and decided by the people of Scotland not Tories in Downing Street."
But there were the tentative outlines of a possible deal between London and Edinburgh last night. Some pro-union sources in London suggested that Salmond could be allowed to hold the referendum in 2014, but this would have to be under powers granted by Westminster. The question would also have to be a simple in or out.
Labour and the Lib Dems are warning Downing Street that the Tories must adopt a lower profile after a backlash against Cameron's announcement and the decision to allow George Osborne to brief the cabinet on the plans. The Tories have been told that the pro-union campaign must be based in Scotland. Goldie is widely seen as the strongest Tory because she out-polls her party. After the leaders' debate in last year's Holyrood election campaign Goldie came second behind Salmond in a poll on who would make the best first minister.
Charles Kennedy, whose role has not been agreed, is seen as an emollient figure who would perform well against Salmond. Sir Menzies Campbell, Kennedy's successor as Lib Dem leader, will also play a prominent role.
Darling is keen to play a part, particularly on the economy. But he does not want to dominate the pro-union campaign as he wants to avoid falling into a Salmond trap of making it presidential. The former chancellor aims to put pressure on Salmond by pointing out that Alex Salmond, the SNP leader, endorsed the Royal Bank of Scotland move to take control of ABN AMRO in 2007. This led to the near-collapse of the Edinburgh-based bank, which had to be bailed out by the UK taxpayer. Its toxic asset exposures stand at £187bn, according to Channel Four News.
Salmond on Wednesday night moved to deflect the pro-union campaign's economic arguments when he said that an independent Scotland should not be liable for the RBS debts, on grounds that its problems were caused by failures of regulation by the UK Financial Services Authority.
Salmond told Channel 4 News that an independent Scotland would demand 90% of the oil revenues from the North Sea, which were worth about £5.9bn a year. London is likely to argue, however, that oil revenues belong to the UK as a whole, giving an independent Scotland about 8% of the revenues, in line with its portion of the UK population. This would amount to about £545m, according to Channel 4 News.
Salmond said: "The geographical share of North Sea oil – that in the Scottish continental shelf – would accrue to Scotland. What is in the English continental shelf would accrue to England. With a proper share of our resources Scotland would be the sixth most prosperous country in the developed world. About 90% of the revenue bearing oil and gas fields are in Scottish waters."
Salmond added that an independent Scotland would accept liability for about 8% of the UK debt. "I am afraid we are going to have to bear our fair share of the Treasury incompetence. That would leave us with a lower debt per GDP than the UK has at the present moment."
Constitutional court
The constitutional role of the UK's supreme court means any legal challenge to a Scottish referendum on independence is to be brought directly before judges in Westminster.
Under the Scotland Act 1998, the law that established the Scottish parliament, issues raised by devolution were to be decided by the Judicial Committee of the Privy Council; that responsibility passed on to the supreme court when it was established in 2009.
Such a question is to be heard by a panel of supreme court justices, composed of seven or nine of the country's senior judges. Of the court's 12 justices two are -traditionally Scottish lawyers with experience of the legal system north of the border: Lord Hope is deputy president of the supreme court and Lord Reed has yet to take up his seat. Both, it is expected, would participate in such a hearing.
A challenge to a poll on independence could be brought by Scotland's lord advocate, who works for the devolved government in Holyrood, or the advocate general for Scotland who works for the Westminster government on its "reserved interests".
Anyone with "an interest" may initiate an action in Scotland's court of session, which would transfer the case to the supreme court in Westminster for a full hearing.
Many suspect the Scottish National party has attempted to undermine the authority of the court's justices.
Owen Bowcott